The Checkpoint Oil Leak Challenges were launched on 10/05/2016 – an overview of all spills can be found at the end of the post.
Results
This section will be updated with regular summaries of results of each of the checkpoints as they become available after 24 hours and after 72 hours.
Arctic
At 10:27 (BST) on 10/05/2016, the Arctic Checkpoint was alerted that an explosion had occured at 08:15 (CET) on the Prirazlomnaya Platform, 60km off the coast in the Pechora Sea (see figure). Oil is leaking subsurface, at a rate of 800m³/day: this is expected to be reduced to 500 m³/day following emergency repairs with 24 hours, with the leak being stopped completely within 72 hours.
Method and assumptions
Initial modelling (results on 11/05/2016) was carried out using ASA’s OILMAPTM model. Because of the entrainment of the oil in the ice, the hydrodynamic data has been made equal to the ice velocity fields and wind action has been switched off. For later updates (on 12/05 and 13/05/2016) the oil spill forecast are based on SINTEF's OSCAR Model.
It was assumed that the exact location of the platform was 69°16'4.44"N, 57°16'50.48"E, with a water depth of about 20m. It was also assumed that the oil was ARCO (Arctic Crude) due to the location and SG (0.910 kg/m3 ) with increased concentration of sulfur and low paraffin content.
Results on 11/05/2016
The oil is rising into an area that is currently an ice field meaning the oil will be entrained in the ice. The ice forecast predicts an westerly flow at approximately 0.3 m/s and no shoreline impact is expected.
Taking into consideration the thickness of the ice sheet, and the current location of the spill, it would be difficult to man a traditional response. The best option would be to monitor and track the oil under the ice sheet and be prepared to act once the ice has started to melt making the oil accessible. Some attempts to locate the oil under the ice and cut trenches for skimmers could be made, but this would depend on the availability of response vessels, and their ability to get through the ice. As such, containment options would be limited. In situ burning could be considered, although accelerants would have to be used.
Figure: Location of the leaking oil platform in the 60km off the coast in the Pechora Sea
Results on 13/05/2016
The oil spill is in a complex, ice infested environment that reduces the reliability of any oil spill forecast. In this case, the Prirazlomnaya Platform is in pack ice flowing westward at upto 0.5 m/s. The oil, which is lighter than water, can be expected to rise to the underside of the ice pack where it will be trapped into the moving ice sheet. Over the last 72 hours, more and more oil was transported north-westward as the ice sheet flows over the top of where the leak is. The ice pack is currently breaking up, making an accurate prediction of where the oil can be recovered very difficult.
Figure: Surface oil shown overlaid with a plot of maximum subsurface concentrations and a cross section of subsurface oil concentration at end of f Day 3 (13-May-2016 08:15 CET). Cross section is for arrow shown on map. (SINTEF OSCAR model, output updated 1100 12 May2016)
Full reports and updates from the Arctic Checkpoint:
Baltic Sea
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016), a borehole located at (55,39974N ; 18,72303E) started to leak oil at a rate of 2500 barrels/day for a period of 3 days (1BBL=159L), which is equivalent to about 15tons/hour.
The accident area is about 119 km northeast of Polish coast (Wladyslawowo) and 153 km west of Klaipeda, where there are Spatial Protected Areas in Natura2000. The oil spill site has a water depth of about 86 meters.
Figure: location of the oil spill event (the location of the yellow star) and Natura2000 Areas from EMODnet Human Activities portal
Method and assumptions
A continuous release of crude oil at the bottom of the sea is assumed in this event.
Two operational oil spill system are used for this case study: (1) SMHI SEATRACK (https://stw-tst.smhi.se/) system to predict the drift of the oil spill with Hiromb as the ocean model and meteorological data from the ECMWF global model and HIRLAM regional NWP model; (2) DMI uses the BSHdmod to calculate oil drift and weathering, an add-on module to the hydro-dynamical model HBM developed at the Bundesamt für Seeschiffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany.The DMI model uses the full 3-D flow field. Input data used for the oil drift forecast include wind forecasts from DMI operational forecasting model HIRLAM (hourly, 3km resolution) , ECMWF (for forecast longer than 54hours), and current forecasts from HBM (15minutes, 5 km resolution).
Results on 11/05/2016
The accident area is dominated by a high pressure system in the afternoon of 10 May. Good weather and sea state conditions will last to the noon of 11 May. The winds will then increase up to Scale 6 and waves to 1-2 meters in the Polish waters in the following 24 hours. The weather and sea state conditions are in general good for oil spill combatting activities.
Forecasts reveal that due to the calm weather condition, the oil does not drift too far from the incident site. The drift distance show that during the first day, the oil drifts less than 10km, and at 96h after the spill, the oil will drift away about 60km. As this is a spill at sea bottom, the vertical movement of the oil is also important. A major fraction of oil is moving to the surface in the first 24hours and % evaporated reaches 30% which appears high.
Based on the forecasts made by DMI and SMHI, there will be no oil landing on the coast, and no impacts on the SPA areas in Natura2000. However, the impact on the marine ecosystems (especially benthic community and fishery) should be significant, and should be further investigated. The Baltic fishery is vulnerable as it has already experienced a decline in last 30 years.
Full reports and updates from the Baltic Checkpoint:
Atlantic
At 8:15 CET on 10/05/2016) an oil tanker (located at LAT:47,330945;LON:-4,366687) reported it was breaking in several parts. By10:00 CET the ship had released all of its 8,000 tons of heavy fuel oil n°6.
Method and assumptions
It was assumed that the oil was released at the surface. According to the oil profiles available in OSCAR, the oil was assumed to be similar to the HEAVY FUEL OIL profile, with an American Petroleum Institute (API) of 15.1.
The checkpoint used the OSCAR (Oil Spill Contingency and Response) model developed by SINTEF for simulating oil spill fate at sea and operated by CLS under license. It is able to evaluate the evolution of oil on the water surface and water column and along shorelines. OSCAR computes the fate and weathering of oil, and potential biological effects. The Copernicus marine service forecasting service and the AVISO tide product are used for current forecast and the wind is extracted from NCEP/NOAA. As the currents are available for a five day period, the first report will provide forecast of the oil spill behaviour until 15/05/2016. The Sea bed substrate is taken from the EMODnet Seabed Habitats database. Information relative to coastal environment and human activities from different sources will be gathered to produce impact maps. QGIS will be used to display these different sets of data and to cross them with the oil spill forecast.
Results on 11/05/2016
During the first three days, the oil slick mostly remains contained around the release site. From that moment on, the oil slick spreads toward South-West under the influence of strong land breeze. It can be noted that the currents in the region are mostly driven by the tidal component. As a result, they don’t present a dominant tendency that could influence the oil slick behaviour.
During the first three days, the oil slick mainly remains at the surface. From that moment on, dispersion is the process responsible for most oil removal. Dispersion refers to one of the natural process of dissipation of an oil spill at sea: waves and turbulence at the sea surface can cause all or part of a slick to break up into fragments and droplets of varying sizes. These become mixed into the upper levels of the water column. As a result, after 80 hours the oil slick starts spreading reaching a maximum area of 5600 km².
Figure: Chronological spreading of the surface oil spill
Figure: maximum thickness of oil on the surface 5 days after the release
The oil slick mainly remains on the surface, far from the shoreline. As a result, no sediment deposition or concentration along the shoreline can be observed 5 days after the release. The spill would not have reached land and no Nature 2000 sites or tourist sites were threatened. The next posts will analyse the impact of such a spill on environmental and human activities.
Results on 13/05/2016
The simulation has been re-run with updated current and wind data and the results 8 days after the accident confirm that no coast will be impacted by the oil spill. Moreover, the spill still remains mainly floating so that no impact on the sea floor is expected after this period. As detailed in the 48h-post, no impact on human and environmental activities is expected.
To perform an efficient and fast oil spill forecast, environmental data such as current and wind data need to be quickly and easily accessible. The data collections used completely met the demand. As for the impact assessment, some data gaps relative to human activities have been identified and are presented below.
- Assessment of the impact on fishery activities: limited as no dataset relative to the importance of fishery efforts for a given location (more restricted than FAO fishery statistical areas) has been found.
- Assessment of impact on tourist beaches: the dataset used refers to the quality of bathing water (EMODnet dataset). However, a better indicator (relative to beach use or proximity to infrastructures such as parking or camping) could be set up.
- Assessment of impact on marine traffic: no shapefile database available (or at least, easily found) to assess and display in QGIS tool the impact of an oil spill on marine traffic.
Full reports and updates from the Atlantic Checkpoint:
Black Sea
The position of the oil spill is supposed to coincide with a blowout of a pipeline located on the seabed at the depth of 50 meter at position LAT = 44°.2494 N, LON = 29°. 47508E. The overall amount of oil released is set to 300m3 crude oil released during a period of 2 days.
Method and assumptions
The bulletin currently is built upon the University of Liege hydrodynamic forecasting products (http://www.seamod.ro) and the high temporal SKIRON winds forecast and the new CYCOFOS waves in the Black Sea.
Results on 11/05/2016
It is expected that 59.512% of the total released oil will be located at the sea surface 72 hours after the reported incident. The oil at surface is transported following the direction of winds and sea current is not expected to impact on the coastal zone even after 72 hours. The oil spill has been transported far away from the location of the incident though, one day after the oil release from the pipeline has been stopped. Despite the fact that the source of the oil spill located at the seabed, the amount of the dispersed oil constitutes a small fraction 4.5%. This is due mainly to the fact that the location of the subsurface source of the oil spill was at shallow water, i.e. at 50 m and the oil rise the surface very quickly. Moreover, the weak subsurface sea currents at the area of the oil spill source case an insignificant diversion of the oil plume from the vertical axis to the North-East, as the dominant sea currents.
Figure: Oil Fate parameters, evolution in time: oil spill at sea surface, oil evaporated, dispersed in the water column.
Full reports and updates from the Black Sea Checkpoint:
Mediterranean Sea
In August 2013 an incident at a buoy off the coast of the Sidi Kerir terminal (LAT:31,130824; LON: 29,75227) with an estimated rate of 5000m3 Brent crude oil spilled during a period of 24 hours starting 8:15 CET on 13/08/2013. Can you retrace what happened with the oil the days following the incident and the likely hood of impacts?
Method and assumptions
The checkpoint oil leak bulletin is built upon Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring service (CMEMS) products (http://marine.copernicus.eu/web/69-interactivecatalogue).
php) and the ECMWF surface atmospheric data. The production of the OPL-Bulletin relies on the availability of high-resolution meteo-oceanographic forecasts and analyses for the Mediterranean Sea provided through CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) portal and other national forecasting systems.
However, given the incident occurred in the past this is a somewhat peculiar situation. CMEMS forecast data are not archived and hourly data are not available as well since CMEMS maintained a 30 days rolling archive. To be able to run the simulation, the checkpoint developed two scenarios. Atmospheric analyses from ECMWF were available for the test period (scenario 1 by INGV) and scenario 2 (by OC-UCY) considered 1-hourly SKIRON wind fields and CYCOFOS 3 hourly wave forecast. Ocean currents and temperature were downloaded from the available CMEMS MED-MFC data archive containing daily averages of model analyses.
Results on 11/05/2016
The results of both simulated SCENARIOS for this accident showed that after 30-32 hours almost all the released, non-evaporated oil arrived on coast, mainly due to the persistent north-westerly wind. In SCENARIO 1 about 13% of the oil evaporated in the first few hours and its percentage remains constant during the simulation time. In SCENARIO 2 the evaporated oil reaches 40 % in the first 8 hours of simulation and progressively increases up to 60% after 72 hours. The high percentage of the free oil on coast (potential releasable back to the sea) caused the high percentage of evaporation of the oil. Re-detachment of oil from the coasts is not evident in both cases.
Figure: SCENARIO 1 - oil on the coast in tons/km after 72 hours.
Full reports and updates from the MedSea Checkpoint:
North Sea
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016), an accident took place during an inspection of the re-activated Brent Delta Platform in preparation of final decommisioning and dismantling. About 5000m3 of crude oil per day leaks from the platform at a depth of 229ft in the water column. It is anticipated that the leak will be sealed after 48 hours.
Method and assumptions
The Checkpoint used the model GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) developed by the Emergency Response Division of NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration to predict the possible route, or trajectory, a pollutant might follow in or on a body of water, such as in an oil spill. The GNOME model is a straightforward instrument with easy to use graphical user interface. As a down-side, the nice interface does not allow for case specific modifications of the model and some predefined settings (such as oil composition) have to be used.
Following assumptions were required:
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The GNOME model used, can only model spills at the sea surface. The oil spilled is relatively light and will reach the surface rapidly.
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Brent Crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This grade is described as light because of its relatively low density, and sweet because of its low sulfur content (ca. 0.37%). GNOME can only simulate a few oil types. We use the “medium crude” oil as specified in the GNOME model as this is the closest match.
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We assume in the model scenario that the oil is released at the sea surface instantaneously at the start of the spill and at the location of the platform.
Results on 11/05/2016
Based on this first preliminary assessment it is likely that:
- There is a threat to coastal habitat/species, according to the worst case scenario;
- There was no information available on tourist beaches, therefore it is unknown if there is a threat to tourist beaches;
- The following locations are threatened:
- Platforms surrounding the spill site
- The Shetlands
- Norway south of Bergen
- The Natura 2000 areas: Pobie Bank Reef; Hermanesss, Saxa vord and Valla Field; Keen of Hamar; Fetlar, North Fetlar; Yell Sound Coast; Noss; Mousa; Sumburgh Head.
- Potentially the nationally designated area Jærstrendene
The following has been identified as a first/ indication of data gaps limiting the preliminary assessment:
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Tourist beaches
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Shipping lanes
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Details on the Natura 2000 areas are not yet addressed
These issues are addressed within the complete impact assessment and/or the main report.
Results on 13/05/2016
Based on oil spill simulation modelling it is predicted that, 132 hours after the spill, 42% is evaporated and dispersed, and 58% remains floating on the sea. As a worst case, 4% (400 m3) of the total amount of spilled oil could beach, posing a threat to coastal habitat/species in the UK and Norway, as indicated by the crosses (beached oil) in the figure below. Main identified gaps limiting this refined assessment are: Tourist beaches (especially the locations of tourist beaches at the Shetlands); Shipping lanes; Fisheries activity on a time scale shorter than a whole year; Distribution data of birds and sea mammals, and possibly other biological distribution data. These issues will be addressed within the main data adequacy report.
Full reports and updates from the North Sea Checkpoint:
Background information
Overview of the oil leak challenges
Arctic
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016), an explosion occurred at an oil platform (Prirazlomnaya platform) 60 kilometers off the coast in the icy Pechora Sea. Oil is leaking at a rate of 800 m3/day from the platform drilling point at the sea-bottom. Emergency measures and repairs are expected to reduce the oil leak to 500m3/day after the first 24 hours and completely close the leak after 72 hours after the accident.
Baltic Sea
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016), a borehole located at LAT:55,3997377540001;LON:18,7230298740001 started to leak oil at a rate of 2500 barrels/day for a period of 3 days.
Atlantic
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016), following an unknown incident, the captain of an oil tanker (located at LAT:47,330945;LON:-4,366687) sent a mayday reporting that the ship was breaking in several parts. By10:00 CET the ship had released all of its 8,000 tons of heavy fuel oil n°6.
Black Sea
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016) an oil pipeline on the seabed was damaged at LAT:44,2494;LON: 29,47508. A total volume of 300m3 crude oil was released during a period of 2 days.
Mediterranean Sea
In August 2013 an incident occurred during a tanker loading operation at a buoy off the coast of the Sidi Kerir terminal of the Sumed pipeline (LAT:31,130824; LON: 29,75227) with an estimated rate of 5000m3 Brent crude oil spilled during a period of 24 hours starting 8:15 CET on 13/08/2013. The accident went largely unattended in the aftermath of the 2013 Egyptian Coup d’état during a period of unrest and instability. Can you retrace what happened with the oil the days following the incident and the likely hood of impacts on the environment.
North Sea
At 8:15 CET this morning (10/05/2016), an accident took place during an inspection of the re-activated Brent Delta Platform in preparation of final decommisioning and dismantling. About 5000m3 of crude oil per day leaks from the platform at a depth of 229ft in the water column. It is anticipated that the leak will be sealed after 48 hours.
What are the Checkpoints are asked to provide?
Checkpoints are invited to provide regular updates with information on
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Fate and transport of the leaked oil
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Expected impact environmental and human activity
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Assumptions necessary to perform the assessment
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The main factors which have strong influence on the outcomes of the fate and expected impact
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Bottlenecks and weaknesses of the assessment methodology and available tools, the data as well as the services required to perform the assessment
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Recommendations to improve existing data collection and provision services, including the content they offer and the way the service is delivered.
The checkpoints will produce technical reports as well as a daily summary of the results.
The EMODnet Checkpoints
The purpose of the EMODnet Sea-Basin Checkpoints is to audit the value of marine data services to solve particular commercial and policy problems or ‘challenges’ relevant to the development of the Blue Economy. With increasing number of public marine data sources available, principally through initiatives such as EMODnet and Copernicus this is timely both to (a) demonstrate the value of marine data resources and information systems; (b) support users in finding the right data products to solve their particular challenges; and (c) examine how existing data services should be improved, including the content they offer and the way the service is delivered. One of these challenges involves an exercise to test how quickly it is feasible to assess the fate and impact of an environmental disaster such as an oil leak from a platform, installation or ship.
The current exercise applies both to the four checkpoints which started in 2015 (Arctic, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, Black Sea) as well as the two pilot checkpoints which started earlier in 2013 (Mediterranean and North Sea). The pilot checkpoints already faced a similar challenge in 2014 (see https://maritime-forum.ec.europa.eu/node/3666 and https://maritime-forum.ec.europa.eu/node/3668).
For more information about the EMODnet Sea-Basin Checkpoints 'stress-tests', please visit the central EMODnet portal at www.emodnet.eu or each of the checkpoint websites:
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Arctic - http://www.emodnet-arctic.eu/
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Baltic Sea - http://www.emodnet-baltic.eu/
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Atlantic - http://www.emodnet-atlantic.eu/
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Black Sea - http://emodnet-blacksea.eu/
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Mediterranean Sea - http://www.emodnet-mediterranean.eu/
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North Sea - http://www.emodnet.eu/northsea/home