PROJECT DESCRIPTION
BACKGROUND
The Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that in the coming decades regional weather patterns will be altered and extreme weather events will become more commonplace. These changing weather patterns will induce changes in the environment that will affect the growth and vitality of forests. This project is particularly concerned by how changes in the water cycle will affect forests. Much of the effect of climate change on forests will be dependent on how soils are able to provide water to trees and other vegetation, as there will likely be changes in precipitation, transpiration and evaporation. However, there is not yet a clear picture of how these changes will impact on Finnish forests.
OBJECTIVES
The Climforisk project aimed to improve knowledge of how forest growth could change in future by compiling existing data and models. Information compiled by the project will establish a better basis for regional forest management planning in the context of climate change. The overall objective of the project was to build and demonstrate a system that predicts changes in forest growth and vulnerability in the context of climate change. The system will be used to develop maps and indicators that will support decision-making by public officials and forest managers. The proposed approach builds on long-term forest monitoring data and links it to models of forest productivity. These data will then be linked to simulated variables that determine the susceptibility of forests to abiotic (drought) and biotic (pests/pathogens) damage. The simulations will enable the accurate prediction of changes in the susceptibility to damage of forests.
RESULTS
The Climforisk project showed that it is likely that the productivity of Finnish forests will increase by the end of the century. Based on the models produced in the project, droughts are not expected to reduce growth of forests in Finland. Overall, the project’s results suggest that good opportunities for forestry will continue in Finland in future.
The project partners created a model for predicting the forest gross primary production (GPP, i.e. vegetation CO2 sequestration from the atmosphere) and evapotranspiration, which is applicable for boreal forests. The main model parameterisation stems from data collected at two Finnish ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System) sites where Scots pine stands are cultivated. The model was tested against the independent land-surface model JSBACH, the MODIS GPP product, simple soil moisture indices, and measurements of soil moisture and growth at selected sites. This showed that the model reproduces the effects of soil moisture on ecosystem fluxes plausibly and reproduces variation in soil moisture in the present climate.
The role of climate change on forest primary production was examined via the use of three emission scenarios and data from eight climate models, to generate a range of predictions for forest GPP change. The project beneficiaries consider it very likely that GPP of Finnish forests will increase in the future, with productivity potentially increasing 25-36% on average. It is expected that the changes will be higher in the north of Finland, where the temperature increases have relatively higher influence on growth changes. A high proportion of these changes will most likely be manifested because increasing warmth speeds up nutrient release from soils that supports growth. Droughts are not expected to reduce overall growth of forests in Finland; but drought risk will be highest in southern Finland. Though not conclusive, the project results suggest that southern parts of Finland are more susceptible to insect damage due to higher drought risk, but as the climate becomes warmer the risk increases also in the northern parts. Climate change impacts on forests are mainly dependent on how soils are able to provide water to trees and other vegetation, as there will likely be changes in precipitation, transpiration and evaporation. An enhanced view on climate change effects on forest growth gained via the project may influence forest management decisions in Finland, and actions conducted by forest owners, e.g. big forest companies. Climate policy planning at national and EU level is also expected to benefit from the project.
The project facilitates EU compliance with the obligations on climate change mitigation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, and encourages adaptation to the effects of climate change. This is achieved by mapping recently compiled soil information to forest inventory data, which allows more accurate spatial mapping of areas where carbon sinks in forests decrease or increase, and where forests have a high risk of damage in the future.
The project applied state-of-the-art methodology in compiling field and remote sensing data on soils and forests, and in modelling ecosystem responses. Key project innovations were: (i) the application of a recently developed soil water model for forests to estimate drought risks of vegetation, drawing input data on soil properties from the Finnish soil map and snow melt data from the SNOWCARBO project (LIFE07 ENV/FIN/000133); (ii) modelling with a GIS-framework to obtain damage vulnerability profiles for particular sites, using high-resolution input data for relevant environmental variables; and (iii) linking forest fires and modelled water storage status of soil and vegetation.
The project outcomes in mitigating climate change impacts on forests should bring socio-economic benefits in Finland. Understanding the future growth potential of Finnish forests, for example for bioenergy, will also help inform harvesting scenarios and future policymaking.
Further information on the project can be found in the project's layman report (see "Read more" section).
